Episode (127)
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Dario Amodei — "We are near the end of the exponential"
Feb 13, 2026Dario Amodei thinks we are just a few years away from AGI — or as he puts it, from having “a country of geniuses in a data center”. In this episode, we discuss what to make of the scaling hypothesis i...
Elon Musk — "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”
Feb 05, 2026In this episode, John and I got to do a real deep-dive with Elon. We discuss the economics of orbital data centers, the difficulties of scaling power on Earth, what it would take to manufacture humano...
Adam Marblestone — AI is missing something fundamental about the brain
Dec 30, 2025Adam Marblestone is CEO of Convergent Research. He’s had a very interesting past life: he was a research scientist at Google Deepmind on their neuroscience team and has worked on everything from brain...
Thoughts on AI progress (Dec 2025)
Dec 23, 2025Read the essay here. Timestamps 00:00:00 What are we scaling? 00:03:11 The value of human labor 00:05:04 Economic diffusion lag is cope00:06:34 Goal-post shifting is justified 00:08:23 RL scaling 00:0...
Sarah Paine — Why Russia Lost the Cold War
Dec 19, 2025This is the final episode of the Sarah Paine lecture series, and it’s probably my favorite one. Sarah gives a “tour of the arguments” on what ultimately led to the Soviet Union’s collapse, diving into...
Ilya Sutskever — We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of research
Nov 25, 2025Ilya & I discuss SSI’s strategy, the problems with pre-training, how to improve the generalization of AI models, and how to ensure AGI goes well. Watch on YouTube; read the transcript. Sponsors * Gemi...
Satya Nadella — How Microsoft is preparing for AGI
Nov 12, 2025As part of this interview, Satya Nadella gave Dylan Patel (founder of SemiAnalysis) and me an exclusive first-look at their brand-new Fairwater 2 datacenter. Microsoft is building multiple Fairwaters,...
Sarah Paine — How Russia sabotaged China's rise
Oct 31, 2025In this lecture, military historian Sarah Paine explains how Russia—and specifically Stalin—completely derailed China’s rise, slowing them down for over a century. This lecture was particularly intere...
Andrej Karpathy — AGI is still a decade away
Oct 17, 2025The Andrej Karpathy episode. During this interview, Andrej explains why reinforcement learning is terrible (but everything else is much worse), why AGI will just blend into the previous ~2.5 centuries...
Nick Lane – Life as we know it is chemically inevitable
Oct 10, 2025Nick Lane has some pretty wild ideas about the evolution of life. He thinks early life was continuous with the spontaneous chemistry of undersea hydrothermal vents. Nick’s story may be wrong, but I fi...